50%机会介于第22人和23人之间
| remaining | base | 1-prob. | n | prob. |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 364 | 365 | 0.99726 | 2 | 0.00274 |
| 363 | 365 | 0.991796 | 3 | 0.008204 |
| 362 | 365 | 0.983644 | 4 | 0.016356 |
| 361 | 365 | 0.972864 | 5 | 0.027136 |
| 360 | 365 | 0.959538 | 6 | 0.040462 |
| 359 | 365 | 0.943764 | 7 | 0.056236 |
| 358 | 365 | 0.925665 | 8 | 0.074335 |
| 357 | 365 | 0.905376 | 9 | 0.094624 |
| 356 | 365 | 0.883052 | 10 | 0.116948 |
| 355 | 365 | 0.858859 | 11 | 0.141141 |
| 354 | 365 | 0.832975 | 12 | 0.167025 |
| 353 | 365 | 0.80559 | 13 | 0.19441 |
| 352 | 365 | 0.776897 | 14 | 0.223103 |
| 351 | 365 | 0.747099 | 15 | 0.252901 |
| 350 | 365 | 0.716396 | 16 | 0.283604 |
| 349 | 365 | 0.684992 | 17 | 0.315008 |
| 348 | 365 | 0.653089 | 18 | 0.346911 |
| 347 | 365 | 0.620881 | 19 | 0.379119 |
| 346 | 365 | 0.588562 | 20 | 0.411438 |
| 345 | 365 | 0.556312 | 21 | 0.443688 |
| 344 | 365 | 0.524305 | 22 | 0.475695 |
| 343 | 365 | 0.492703 | 23 | 0.507297 |
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